S&p Global Inc. SPGI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

S&p Global Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.2B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $16.5B across the next four quarters (+4.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$16.5B
+4.8% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$0.72 per $1
Training Fit
2.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $3.95B vs the actual $4.17B — an error of 5.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: S&p Global Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

SPGI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $3.95B $4.17B $3.56B–$4.39B +4.7% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.02B $3.58B–$4.51B +7.1%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.08B $3.59B–$4.63B +4.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.21B $3.64B–$4.86B +7.4%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.19B $3.59B–$4.90B +0.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture S&p Global Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9954 -0.5% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0206 +2.1% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9966 -0.3% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9804 -2.0% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

SPGI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 57 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0651x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -5.2%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 57 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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