Franklin Resources, Inc. BEN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 67 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Franklin Resources, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $9.3B across the next four quarters (+0.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$9.35B
+0.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.82 per $1
Training Fit
2.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $2.22B vs the actual $2.36B — an error of 6.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Franklin Resources, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

BEN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $2.22B $2.36B $2.10B–$2.33B +7.5% ✗ Outside range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $2.34B $2.18B–$2.50B -0.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $2.38B $2.18B–$2.58B +2.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $2.36B $2.13B–$2.59B +2.7%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $2.27B $2.02B–$2.53B -3.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Franklin Resources, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 1.0044 +0.4% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 0.9874 -1.3% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 0.9949 -0.5% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 1.006 +0.6% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

BEN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 67 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.8154x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 67 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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