Ares Management Corporation ARES

Revenue Intelligence Report • 21 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Ares Management Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $8.3B across the next four quarters (+39.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$8.32B
+39.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.33x
Training Fit
11.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.59B vs the actual $1.43B — an error of 11.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Ares Management Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ARES Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.59B $1.43B $1.22B–$2.07B +17.7% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.90B $1.30B–$2.77B +14.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.96B $1.24B–$3.12B +30.4%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $2.23B $1.31B–$3.81B +60.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $2.23B $1.23B–$4.05B +56.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ares Management Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.968 -3.2% -3.2% below trend 5
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0147 +1.5% In line with trend 4
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.1026 +10.3% +10.3% above trend 4
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.059 +5.9% +5.9% above trend 4

Spending and Revenue

ARES Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 21 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4554x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 21 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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