What is ECPG's forecasted revenue?

Encore Capital Group, Inc. is forecasted to generate $88.6M in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +7.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ECPG revenue forecast model?

The model has 24.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $22M versus the actual $18M.

Encore Capital Group, Inc. ECPG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $18M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $89M across the next four quarters (+7.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 19.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$88.6M

+7.5% YoY

G&A Elasticity

-0.32x

Training Fit

24.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $21.9M vs the actual $18.2M — an error of 19.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Note: Encore Capital Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($18M) came in 20% below the spending-based forecast ($22M). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$21.9M	$18.2M	$8.0M–$59.5M	-2.0%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$22.3M		$7.5M–$66.3M	+0.7%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$21.5M		$6.8M–$67.3M	+0.4%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$22.4M		$6.4M–$78.6M	+8.6%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$22.4M		$5.8M–$85.7M	+22.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.001	+0.1%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0239	+2.4%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0286	+2.9%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9583	-4.2%	-4.2% below trend	16

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -0.3437x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 19.9%.

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