American International Group, Inc. AIG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

American International Group, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $7.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $26.9B across the next four quarters (+1.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$26.9B
+1.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$0.13 per $1
Training Fit
1.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $7.25B vs the actual $7.08B — an error of 2.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: American International Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

AIG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $7.25B $7.08B $7.02B–$7.49B +2.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $6.40B $6.07B–$6.73B +0.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $6.56B $6.15B–$6.97B +0.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $6.83B $6.36B–$7.31B +2.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $7.12B $6.59B–$7.64B +0.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture American International Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9849 -1.5% In line with trend 3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0103 +1.0% In line with trend 2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0023 +0.2% In line with trend 3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9957 -0.4% In line with trend 3

Spending and Revenue

AIG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.159x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 14 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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