Unitedhealth Group Incorporated UNH

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Unitedhealth Group Incorporated's latest quarterly revenue is $112B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $505B across the next four quarters (+12.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$504.6B
+12.1% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$5.58 per $1
Training Fit
2.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $114.57B vs the actual $112.03B — an error of 2.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Unitedhealth Group Incorporated does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

UNH Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $114.57B $112.03B $111.55B–$117.59B +2.6% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $120.67B $116.40B–$124.94B +6.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $129.12B $123.88B–$134.35B +14.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $127.07B $121.03B–$133.11B +13.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $127.70B $120.95B–$134.45B +14.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Unitedhealth Group Incorporated's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0208 +2.1% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9953 -0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9941 -0.6% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9895 -1.0% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

UNH Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1475x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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