Elevance Health, Inc. ELV

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Elevance Health, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $50.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $214B across the next four quarters (+6.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$214.4B
+6.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$7.51 per $1
Training Fit
2.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $51.95B vs the actual $50.47B — an error of 2.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Elevance Health, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ELV Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $51.95B $50.47B $47.32B–$57.02B +4.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $52.57B $47.58B–$58.08B +3.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $53.34B $47.85B–$59.45B +7.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $53.20B $47.07B–$60.12B +6.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $55.30B $48.55B–$62.99B +9.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Elevance Health, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9909 -0.9% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9985 -0.1% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0005 +0.0% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9917 -0.8% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

ELV Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1115x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 2.9%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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