Incyte Corporation INCY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Incyte Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.3B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $5.6B across the next four quarters (+4.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$5.61B
+4.7% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.45x
SG&A Elasticity
1.10x
Training Fit
16.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $1.33B vs the actual $1.27B — an error of 4.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

INCY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $1.33B $1.27B $875.0M–$2.03B +26.5% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.49B $820.5M–$2.69B +22.3%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.41B $681.6M–$2.92B +3.3%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.44B $620.2M–$3.33B -4.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.28B $500.6M–$3.28B +0.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Incyte Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9077 -9.2% -9.2% below trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.987 -1.3% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9948 -0.5% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0701 +7.0% +7.0% above trend 15

Spending and Revenue

INCY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0462x • R&D elasticity: 0.2722x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 65 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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