Insulet Corporation PODD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 18 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Insulet Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $802M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.1B across the next four quarters (+35.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 10.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.12B
+35.1% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$3.27 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$3.08 per $1
Training Fit
0.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $886.9M vs the actual $801.7M — an error of 10.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

PODD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $886.9M $801.7M $879.7M–$894.2M +36.6% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $899.9M $889.7M–$910.1M +27.4%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.05B $1.03B–$1.06B +33.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $990.9M $976.5M–$1.01B +30.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.19B $1.17B–$1.20B +47.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Insulet Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0009 +0.1% In line with trend 4
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9999 -0.0% In line with trend 3
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0021 +0.2% In line with trend 3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.999 -0.1% In line with trend 4

Spending and Revenue

PODD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 18 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5758x • R&D elasticity: 0.5074x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 18 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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