Henry Schein, Inc. HSIC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 58 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Henry Schein, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.5B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $13.4B across the next four quarters (-1.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$13.4B
-1.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.50x
Training Fit
8.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.32B vs the actual $3.46B — an error of 4.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Henry Schein, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

HSIC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-27		 $3.32B $3.46B $2.14B–$5.15B +2.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-27		 $3.34B $2.16B–$5.17B +0.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-27		 $3.34B $2.13B–$5.24B -2.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-27		 $3.35B $2.13B–$5.28B -0.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-27		 $3.36B $2.12B–$5.34B -2.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Henry Schein, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9691 -3.1% -3.1% below trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9802 -2.0% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0048 +0.5% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0465 +4.7% +4.7% above trend 14

Spending and Revenue

HSIC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 58 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0863x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -4.0%.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 58 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Healthcare

COO ABBV ALGN TMO STE CI BDX PFE