Danaher Corporation DHR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 46 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-26

Danaher Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $6.3B for the period ending 2026-06-26. The model projects $24.2B across the next four quarters (-3.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-26. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$24.2B
-3.8% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$8.48 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$2.68 per $1
Training Fit
6.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $6.24B vs the actual $6.26B — an error of 0.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

DHR Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-26		 $6.24B $6.26B $4.76B–$8.17B +5.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-26		 $5.45B $4.21B–$7.05B -10.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-26		 $7.05B $5.40B–$9.20B +3.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-26		 $5.55B $4.24B–$7.26B -6.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-26		 $6.12B $4.39B–$8.53B -2.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Danaher Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9951 -0.5% In line with trend 12
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0107 +1.1% In line with trend 11
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0016 +0.2% In line with trend 11
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.027 +2.7% In line with trend 11

Spending and Revenue

DHR Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 46 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0909x • R&D elasticity: 1.6996x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -0.4%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 46 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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