Becton, Dickinson and Company BDX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Becton, Dickinson and Company's latest quarterly revenue is $5.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $21.7B across the next four quarters (+4.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$21.7B
+4.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.99x
Training Fit
4.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $4.81B vs the actual $4.98B — an error of 3.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Becton, Dickinson and Company does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

BDX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.81B $4.98B $4.19B–$5.51B +1.7% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $5.81B $5.00B–$6.75B -1.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $5.93B $5.05B–$6.96B +12.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.97B $4.23B–$5.84B +5.4%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.99B $4.20B–$5.92B +0.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Becton, Dickinson and Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 0.9758 -2.4% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 1.004 +0.4% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 1.0162 +1.6% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 1.0077 +0.8% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

BDX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.2059x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -3.5%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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