Eli Lilly and Company LLY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Eli Lilly and Company's latest quarterly revenue is $23.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $118B across the next four quarters (+47.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$117.7B
+47.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.08x
Training Fit
4.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $23.82B vs the actual $22.97B — an error of 3.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Eli Lilly and Company does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

LLY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $23.82B $22.97B $20.28B–$27.97B +53.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $24.31B $20.68B–$28.58B +38.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $29.54B $24.63B–$35.42B +53.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $27.94B $23.44B–$33.31B +41.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $35.91B $29.25B–$44.09B +56.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Eli Lilly and Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0059 +0.6% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9731 -2.7% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0306 +3.1% +3.1% above trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9809 -1.9% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

LLY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.2447x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 3.7%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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