Baxter International Inc. BAX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Baxter International Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $15.8B across the next four quarters (+37.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$15.8B
+37.7% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$1.93 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$0.74 per $1
Training Fit
1.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.20B vs the actual $2.96B — an error of 8.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

BAX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.20B $2.96B $2.98B–$3.43B +13.8% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $3.75B $3.29B–$4.27B +32.3%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.02B $3.54B–$4.56B +35.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.37B $3.11B–$3.64B +24.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.66B $3.80B–$5.72B +57.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Baxter International Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9912 -0.9% In line with trend 4
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0064 +0.6% In line with trend 3
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9932 -0.7% In line with trend 3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9969 -0.3% In line with trend 3

Spending and Revenue

BAX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1866x • R&D elasticity: -1.0132x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 8.0%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 14 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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