Biogen Inc. BIIB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Biogen Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.5B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $10.1B across the next four quarters (+2.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$10.1B
+2.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.16x
Training Fit
4.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $2.54B vs the actual $2.48B — an error of 2.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Biogen Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

BIIB Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $2.54B $2.48B $2.21B–$2.93B +4.6% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $2.54B $2.18B–$2.97B -3.8%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $2.55B $2.14B–$3.02B +0.4%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $2.46B $2.03B–$2.99B +8.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $2.59B $2.09B–$3.21B +4.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Biogen Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9703 -3.0% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0082 +0.8% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0252 +2.5% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9945 -0.6% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

BIIB Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.2308x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 2.6%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 72 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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