Amgen Inc AMGN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Amgen Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $10.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $39.7B across the next four quarters (+4.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$39.7B
+4.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.20x
Training Fit
2.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $9.62B vs the actual $10.05B — an error of 4.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Amgen Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

AMGN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $9.62B $10.05B $9.11B–$10.17B +4.9% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $9.85B $9.12B–$10.64B +3.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $10.23B $9.31B–$11.25B +3.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $9.44B $8.47B–$10.54B +9.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $10.15B $8.98B–$11.47B +0.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Amgen Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.986 -1.4% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9979 -0.2% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0039 +0.4% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9953 -0.5% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

AMGN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3657x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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