Dexcom, Inc. DXCM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Dexcom, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $5.9B across the next four quarters (+18.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$5.87B
+18.0% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.59x
SG&A Elasticity
0.04x
Training Fit
5.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.33B vs the actual $1.31B — an error of 1.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

DXCM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.33B $1.31B $1.15B–$1.55B +15.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.40B $1.14B–$1.73B +15.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.48B $1.15B–$1.92B +17.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.44B $1.07B–$1.94B +20.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.54B $1.11B–$2.15B +18.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Dexcom, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9448 -5.5% -5.5% below trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0234 +2.3% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0268 +2.7% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0155 +1.5% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

DXCM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.302x • R&D elasticity: 0.3336x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 65 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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