Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's latest quarterly revenue is $13.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $44.8B across the next four quarters (-8.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 10.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$44.8B
-8.9% YoY
R&D Elasticity
1.57x
SG&A Elasticity
0.79x
Training Fit
3.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $11.62B vs the actual $12.97B — an error of 10.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

BMY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $11.62B $12.97B $9.76B–$13.84B -5.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $11.32B $9.16B–$13.98B -7.4%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $11.09B $8.53B–$14.42B -11.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $11.48B $8.54B–$15.42B -0.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $10.94B $7.80B–$15.34B -15.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0118 +1.2% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0174 +1.7% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0121 +1.2% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9952 -0.5% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

BMY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0944x • R&D elasticity: 0.5404x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -10.4%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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