Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma VRTX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma's latest quarterly revenue is $3.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $20.2B across the next four quarters (+60.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 10.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$20.2B
+60.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.80x
Training Fit
17.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.70B vs the actual $3.33B — an error of 10.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

VRTX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.70B $3.33B $2.23B–$6.13B +24.7% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $3.97B $1.94B–$8.12B +29.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.71B $1.96B–$11.32B +47.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.46B $1.98B–$15.01B +82.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $6.06B $1.95B–$18.79B +81.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9192 -8.1% -8.1% below trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9853 -1.5% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0734 +7.3% +7.3% above trend 16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.065 +6.5% +6.5% above trend 17

Spending and Revenue

VRTX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 70 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.6268x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 70 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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