Kenvue Inc. KVUE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 18 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

Kenvue Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.0B for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $15.1B across the next four quarters (-2.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$15.1B
-2.2% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-10.89 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$1.22 per $1
Training Fit
0.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $3.79B vs the actual $3.96B — an error of 4.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

KVUE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-06-28		 $3.79B $3.96B $3.72B–$3.86B -1.3% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-28		 $3.65B $3.56B–$3.75B -3.0%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-28		 $3.87B $3.75B–$3.99B +2.4%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-03-28		 $3.90B $3.77B–$4.04B -0.1%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-06-28		 $3.65B $3.50B–$3.80B -7.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Kenvue Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 1.001 +0.1% In line with trend 4
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0004 +0.0% In line with trend 3
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 0.997 -0.3% In line with trend 3
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 1.0012 +0.1% In line with trend 4

Spending and Revenue

KVUE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 18 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1433x • R&D elasticity: -0.7744x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 18 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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