Pfizer Inc PFE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 37 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

Pfizer Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $15.0B for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $56.3B across the next four quarters (-11.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 15.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$56.3B
-11.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-2.15x
Training Fit
29.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $12.67B vs the actual $15.03B — an error of 15.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Pfizer Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($15B) came in 16% above the spending-based forecast ($13B). This suggests that Pfizer Inc's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

PFE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-28		 $12.67B $15.03B $6.41B–$25.03B -13.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-28		 $14.98B $5.72B–$39.24B -10.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-28		 $16.91B $5.20B–$54.99B -3.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-28		 $12.33B $3.16B–$48.14B -14.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-28		 $12.05B $2.63B–$55.24B -19.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Pfizer Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.1041 +10.4% +10.4% above trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.1272 +12.7% +12.7% above trend 8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0012 +0.1% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9434 -5.7% -5.7% below trend 8

Spending and Revenue

PFE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 37 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -1.8121x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 37 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Healthcare

EW BAX PODD ALGN MCK HSIC RMD COO