Align Technology, inc. ALGN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Align Technology, inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.1B across the next four quarters (-1.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.07B
-1.6% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$1.83 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$2.50 per $1
Training Fit
3.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $999.8M vs the actual $1.06B — an error of 5.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

ALGN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $999.8M $1.06B $931.4M–$1.07B -1.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $927.2M $830.5M–$1.02B -6.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.08B $966.4M–$1.20B +3.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.08B $942.2M–$1.22B +3.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $982.6M $829.7M–$1.14B -7.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Align Technology, inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9873 -1.3% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0047 +0.5% In line with trend 7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0024 +0.2% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0083 +0.8% In line with trend 7

Spending and Revenue

ALGN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 34 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1107x • R&D elasticity: -0.1276x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 34 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Healthcare

PODD IDXX MRK MCK BIIB REGN VRTX COR