The Cigna Group CI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

The Cigna Group's latest quarterly revenue is $71.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $240B across the next four quarters (-15.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$239.7B
-15.1% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$23.41 per $1
Training Fit
5.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $66.28B vs the actual $71.67B — an error of 7.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: The Cigna Group does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

CI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $66.28B $71.67B $58.65B–$73.92B -1.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $63.39B $52.59B–$74.18B -9.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $60.88B $47.67B–$74.10B -16.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $58.49B $43.23B–$73.75B -14.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $56.90B $39.83B–$73.96B -20.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture The Cigna Group's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9846 -1.5% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9995 -0.0% In line with trend 7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9696 -3.0% -3.0% below trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9936 -0.6% In line with trend 7

Spending and Revenue

CI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 34 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.2122x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 34 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Healthcare

DHR COR CNC HOLX VTRS IQV ELV HSIC