Mckesson Corporation MCK

Revenue Intelligence Report • 25 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Mckesson Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $105B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $464B across the next four quarters (+12.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$463.8B
+12.9% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$16.15 per $1
Training Fit
2.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $104.97B vs the actual $105.38B — an error of 0.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Mckesson Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

MCK Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-06-30		 $104.97B $105.38B $99.11B–$110.83B +7.3% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-30		 $114.75B $106.46B–$123.03B +11.2%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $117.06B $106.92B–$127.21B +10.3%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $113.36B $101.64B–$125.07B +17.7%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-06-30		 $118.67B $105.57B–$131.77B +12.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Mckesson Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Apr–Jun) 1.0285 +2.8% In line with trend 5
FQ2 (Jul–Sep) 0.9824 -1.8% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Oct–Dec) 1.0029 +0.3% In line with trend 5
FQ4 (Jan–Mar) 0.9837 -1.6% In line with trend 5

Spending and Revenue

MCK Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 25 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4641x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 25 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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