Merck & Co., Inc. MRK

Revenue Intelligence Report • 37 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Merck & Co., Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $16.6B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $64.5B across the next four quarters (-3.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$64.5B
-3.1% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$0.06 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$-1.59 per $1
Training Fit
5.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $15.45B vs the actual $16.61B — an error of 7.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

MRK Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $15.45B $16.61B $13.79B–$17.10B -2.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $16.01B $13.67B–$18.35B -7.3%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $17.15B $14.29B–$20.02B +4.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $16.01B $12.70B–$19.31B -1.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $15.34B $11.64B–$19.03B -7.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Merck & Co., Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0071 +0.7% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0095 +1.0% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0146 +1.5% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.966 -3.4% -3.4% below trend 8

Spending and Revenue

MRK Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 37 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -1.6302x • R&D elasticity: -0.0464x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 37 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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