Johnson & Johnson JNJ

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

Johnson & Johnson's latest quarterly revenue is $25.3B for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $108B across the next four quarters (+10.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$107.8B
+10.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.23x
Training Fit
3.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $24.77B vs the actual $25.31B — an error of 2.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Johnson & Johnson does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

JNJ Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-06-28		 $24.77B $25.31B $22.80B–$26.92B +4.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-28		 $26.11B $23.21B–$29.36B +8.8%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-28		 $27.90B $24.16B–$32.22B +13.6%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-03-28		 $26.67B $22.59B–$31.49B +10.8%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-06-28		 $27.14B $22.54B–$32.68B +7.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Johnson & Johnson's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 1.0236 +2.4% In line with trend 9
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0127 +1.3% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 0.9813 -1.9% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 0.969 -3.1% -3.1% below trend 8

Spending and Revenue

JNJ Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7542x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 38 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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