Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $7.8B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $28.7B across the next four quarters (-5.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$28.7B
-5.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.34x
Training Fit
5.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $7.25B vs the actual $7.80B — an error of 7.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Gilead Sciences, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

GILD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $7.25B $7.80B $5.70B–$9.22B +2.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $7.19B $5.40B–$9.56B -7.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $7.34B $5.25B–$10.25B -7.4%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $7.12B $4.83B–$10.49B +2.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $7.02B $4.49B–$10.95B -10.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9706 -2.9% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9878 -1.2% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0353 +3.5% +3.5% above trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0129 +1.3% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

GILD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.113x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -7.1%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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