Mettler-Toledo International Inc. MTD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Mettler-Toledo International Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.4B across the next four quarters (+7.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.42B
+7.0% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-9.90 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$4.34 per $1
Training Fit
3.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.05B vs the actual $1.03B — an error of 1.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

MTD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.05B $1.03B $978.2M–$1.11B +6.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.09B $996.9M–$1.19B +6.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.18B $1.06B–$1.29B +4.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.03B $897.0M–$1.16B +8.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.12B $972.2M–$1.27B +9.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Mettler-Toledo International Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9717 -2.8% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9892 -1.1% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0107 +1.1% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0119 +1.2% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

MTD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.101x • R&D elasticity: 1.5144x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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