Intuitive Surgical, Inc. ISRG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Intuitive Surgical, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.9B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $12.7B across the next four quarters (+15.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$12.7B
+15.2% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$10.56 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$4.17 per $1
Training Fit
5.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.82B vs the actual $2.89B — an error of 2.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

ISRG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $2.82B $2.89B $2.36B–$3.37B +15.6% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $2.90B $2.40B–$3.51B +15.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $3.38B $2.74B–$4.17B +18.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.14B $2.53B–$3.90B +13.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $3.29B $2.62B–$4.14B +13.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Intuitive Surgical, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.983 -1.7% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0162 +1.6% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9975 -0.3% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0388 +3.9% +3.9% above trend 18

Spending and Revenue

ISRG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.8331x • R&D elasticity: -0.616x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -2.5%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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