Medtronic Plc MDT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 49 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Medtronic Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $9.8B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $42.5B across the next four quarters (+13.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$42.5B
+13.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.09x
Training Fit
3.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $9.67B vs the actual $9.76B — an error of 0.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Medtronic Plc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

MDT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-31		 $9.67B $9.76B $8.76B–$10.69B +12.8% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-31		 $10.40B $9.27B–$11.68B +16.1%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $10.38B $9.25B–$11.64B +15.1%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-30		 $10.86B $9.55B–$12.35B +10.7%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-31		 $10.83B $9.53B–$12.31B +11.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Medtronic Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (May–Jul) 0.9817 -1.8% In line with trend 12
FQ2 (Aug–Oct) 0.9939 -0.6% In line with trend 12
FQ3 (Nov–Jan) 1.0038 +0.4% In line with trend 12
FQ4 (Feb–Apr) 1.0553 +5.5% +5.5% above trend 12

Spending and Revenue

MDT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 49 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.2955x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -0.8%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 49 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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