Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. TMO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $12.0B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $48.2B across the next four quarters (+4.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$48.2B
+4.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.06x
Training Fit
3.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $11.35B vs the actual $11.99B — an error of 5.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

TMO Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-27		 $11.35B $11.99B $10.38B–$12.41B +4.6% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-27		 $11.31B $9.97B–$12.83B +1.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-27		 $12.61B $10.80B–$14.71B +3.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-27		 $12.07B $10.10B–$14.43B +9.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-27		 $12.22B $10.02B–$14.92B +1.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9544 -4.6% -4.6% below trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.991 -0.9% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9991 -0.1% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.022 +2.2% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

TMO Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1446x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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