Vistra Corp. VST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 37 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Vistra Corp. demonstrates a strong correlation between its SG&A spending and revenue growth, with a 1% increase in SG&A leading to a 1.07% rise in revenue, indicating effective allocation of resources. Despite a recent holdout test predicting a revenue of $5195M against an actual $4805M, the company is poised for significant growth with a fiscal year forecast of $23B in revenue, reflecting a robust 29.9% year-over-year increase. The model's 19.2% MAPE suggests room for improvement in predictive accuracy, yet the underlying trends indicate a positive outlook for financial investors. Overall, the company's strategic spending and revenue elasticity position it favorably for continued expansion in the market.

Next FY Revenue
$22.84B
+29.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.07x
Model Accuracy
19.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5B vs the actual $5B — an error of 8.1%.
Note: Vistra Corp. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

VST Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $5B $5B $3B – $9B +41.9% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $5B $3B – $12B +27.4%
Q3 2026 $6B $2B – $14B +49.5%
Q4 2026 $6B $2B – $17B +21.5%
Q4 2026 $6B $2B – $20B +25.1%

How Spending Drives Revenue

VST Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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