Vistra Corp. VST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 39 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Vistra Corp.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $18.0B across the next four quarters (-5.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$18.0B
-5.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.14x
Training Fit
19.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.38B vs the actual $4.40B — an error of 0.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Vistra Corp. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

VST Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.38B $4.40B $2.25B–$8.51B +16.7% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.43B $2.23B–$8.80B -7.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.48B $2.19B–$9.15B -6.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.52B $2.13B–$9.61B -9.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.57B $2.10B–$9.92B +3.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Vistra Corp.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0029 +0.3% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.898 -10.2% -10.2% below trend 9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.228 +22.8% +22.8% above trend 9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.8951 -10.5% -10.5% below trend 10

Spending and Revenue

VST Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 39 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.038x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -0.5%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 39 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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