Waste Management, Inc WM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

The latest quarterly revenue of $6.313 billion reflects the company's strong performance, driven primarily by operational efficiency rather than R&D investments. With a significant negative return on SG&A spending, where every dollar spent results in a long-run revenue decrease of $18.89, the focus on cost management is critical. Despite this, the company forecasts a robust FY revenue of $29 billion, representing a 13.1% year-over-year growth, indicating a positive outlook for investors. The model's accuracy, with a 3.0% MAPE and a close holdout test prediction, further reinforces confidence in the projected growth trajectory.

Next FY Revenue

$28.52B

+13.1% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$-18.89 per $1

Model Accuracy

3.0% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $6B vs the actual $6B — an error of 2.4%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Note: Waste Management, Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$6B	$6B	$6B – $7B	+9.7%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$7B		$6B – $7B	+12.3%
Q3 2026	$7B		$7B – $8B	+9.7%
Q4 2026	$7B		$7B – $8B	+12.5%
Q1 2027	$7B		$7B – $8B	+18.0%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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