What is ALGN's forecasted revenue?

Align Technology, inc. is forecasted to generate $810.2M in FY revenue, representing +6.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ALGN revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 2.4% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $196M versus the actual $199M.

Align Technology, inc. ALGN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 22 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven primarily by R&D-led product development, with SG&A contributing more modestly to the top line. The model implies a strong ROI on spending: roughly $14.38 of long-run revenue per $1 of R&D, versus about $1.23 of revenue per $1 of SG&A, underscoring R&D as the key growth engine. The model shows solid predictive accuracy, with 2.4% MAPE and a holdout error of 1.1% (latest quarter revenue of $199M vs predicted $196M). For the year, revenue is forecast at $810M, up about 6.4% year over year, indicating a steady growth trajectory supported by efficient spending and ongoing product adoption.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Align Technology, inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $14.38 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.23 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$810.2M

+6.4% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$14.38 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$1.23 per $1

Model Accuracy

2.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $196M vs the actual $199M — an error of 1.1%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2014	$196M	$199M	$188M – $205M	+10.1%	✓ In range
Q2 2015	$197M		$185M – $208M	+8.8%
Q3 2015	$201M		$186M – $215M	+4.3%
Q4 2015	$205M		$188M – $222M	+7.9%
Q1 2016	$208M		$189M – $227M	+4.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Align Technology, inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.9905	-1.0%	In line with trend	5
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0138	+1.4%	In line with trend	5
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9984	-0.2%	In line with trend	4
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0276	+2.8%	In line with trend	4

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

More in Healthcare

HUM GILD CAH WAT TECH BAX CRL DGX