Amgen Inc AMGN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Latest quarterly revenue stood at $9.866 billion. For Amgen Inc (AMGN), the revenue model ties growth to SG&A spending, with an implied ROI of $6.24 of long-run revenue per $1 of SG&A. The model is linear (MAPE 2.5%), and a holdout test predicted $9.30B versus actual $9.90B (6.1% error), indicating modest out-of-sample miss. The FY revenue forecast is about $36B, down 1.2% year over year, signaling modest top-line pressure while SG&A efficiency remains a key driver.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Amgen Inc's revenue with exceptional precision (2.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $6.24 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$36.3B
-1.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$6.24 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $9.3B vs the actual $9.9B — an error of 6.1%.
Note: Amgen Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

AMGN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $9.3B $9.9B $8.9B – $9.6B +2.0% ✗ Outside range
Q2 2026 $9.0B $8.5B – $9.5B +10.3%
Q3 2026 $9.2B $8.6B – $9.8B -0.1%
Q4 2026 $9.2B $8.5B – $9.9B -4.0%
Q1 2027 $9.0B $8.2B – $9.8B -8.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Amgen Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0035 +0.4% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9901 -1.0% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.01 +1.0% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9958 -0.4% In line with trend 16

How Spending Drives Revenue

AMGN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (linear) with 70 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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