What is HSIC's forecasted revenue?

Henry Schein, Inc. is forecasted to generate $13.1B in FY revenue, representing -0.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the HSIC revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 9.7% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.4B versus the actual $3.4B.

Henry Schein, Inc. HSIC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 48 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

SG&A investments drive revenue, with an elasticity of 0.63% in revenue for every 1% change in SG&A, while R&D impact is not quantified in this dataset. The model, based on a log-log specification, shows credible predictive performance with 9.7% MAPE and a holdout error of about 1.1% on a 3.4B quarterly baseline, supported by 48 quarters of data. The FY revenue forecast is about $13B, down 0.9% YoY, signaling a modest revenue decline despite ongoing SG&A activity. For investors, the ROI of SG&A spend appears positive but modest, underscoring the need for spending efficiency and cost discipline given the absence of quantified R&D gains and the modest top-line outlook.

Investment Thesis

At 9.7% MAPE, the model captures Henry Schein, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.63x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$13.1B

-0.9% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.63x

Model Accuracy

9.7% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.4B vs the actual $3.4B — an error of 1.1%.

Note: Henry Schein, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$3.4B	$3.4B	$2.4B – $4.9B	+6.5%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$3.3B		$1.9B – $5.5B	+2.7%
Q2 2026	$3.2B		$1.7B – $6.1B	+0.2%
Q3 2026	$3.3B		$1.6B – $6.9B	-0.7%
Q4 2026	$3.3B		$1.4B – $7.4B	-5.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Henry Schein, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.948	-5.2%	-5.2% below trend	13
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.1466	+14.7%	+14.7% above trend	6
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9303	-7.0%	-7.0% below trend	13
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.98	-2.0%	In line with trend	13

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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