Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. demonstrates a strong relationship between its selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and revenue growth, with a 1% increase in SG&A leading to a 0.79% rise in revenue, indicating effective resource allocation. Despite a forecasted decline in fiscal year revenue of 4.8% year-over-year to $12 billion, the company's recent quarterly performance of $3,142 million showcases resilience, with a holdout test error of just 2.3%. The model's accuracy, reflected in a 5.4% MAPE, reinforces confidence in revenue projections. Investors should monitor SG&A efficiency as a key driver for future revenue recovery and overall financial health.

Next FY Revenue

$12.03B

-4.8% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.79x

Model Accuracy

5.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $3B vs the actual $3B — an error of 2.3%.

Note: Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$3B	$3B	$3B – $4B	+1.3%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$3B		$3B – $4B	-4.5%
Q3 2026	$3B		$2B – $4B	-8.3%
Q4 2026	$3B		$2B – $4B	-0.9%
Q1 2027	$3B		$2B – $4B	-5.2%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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