Iron Mountain Inc IRM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 30 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Iron Mountain Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $2.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $5.8B across the next four quarters (-23.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 28.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$5.82B
-23.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
2.35x
Training Fit
27.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.45B vs the actual $2.03B — an error of 28.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Iron Mountain Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($2.0B) came in 29% above the spending-based forecast ($1.5B). This suggests that Iron Mountain Inc's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

IRM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.45B $2.03B $358.2M–$5.87B -15.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.64B $493.7M–$5.45B -6.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.61B $466.6M–$5.58B -12.5%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.41B $340.9M–$5.80B -27.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.16B $199.9M–$6.77B -42.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Iron Mountain Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9545 -4.5% -4.5% below trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.908 -9.2% -9.2% below trend 7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9238 -7.6% -7.6% below trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0511 +5.1% +5.1% above trend 7

Spending and Revenue

IRM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 30 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.8429x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -28.5%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 30 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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