Welltower Inc.: possible revenue paths
Forecasts are conditional on the listed data cutoff. This rollout reuses the existing company datasets; it is not a fresh SEC-data refresh. Some forecast quarters may already have ended by the computation date. Read each target date before treating an estimate as a future-quarter outlook.
PyMC seasonal AR(1) quarterly log-revenue growth with Student-t shocks; posterior predictive paths include parameter uncertainty and new shocks at every horizon.
Each line is one possible future revenue path. The 80% and 95% intervals are pointwise model probabilities, not simultaneous coverage for the whole path. The median is not an expected dollar mean. Open full-size chart.
| Quarter ending | Predictive median | 80% predictive interval | 95% predictive interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $2.913B | $2.583B–$3.261B | $2.365B–$3.578B |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.014B | $2.519B–$3.590B | $2.227B–$4.070B |
| 2026-12-31 | $3.085B | $2.475B–$3.870B | $2.117B–$4.533B |
| 2027-03-31 | $3.231B | $2.470B–$4.203B | $2.059B–$4.944B |
Future period-end dates are approximate: month-end issuers retain month-end dates; weekly issuers advance by 13 weeks. Future 53-week adjustments are not known.
Historical forecast checks
Each historical cutoff refits the model using only earlier observations. Across the available outcomes, the 80% intervals covered 15/16 and the 95% intervals covered 16/16. Small samples and overlapping outcomes do not establish nominal coverage; covering every outcome can indicate overly wide intervals.
| Horizon | Cases | Bayesian median MAPE | Last reported revenue MAPE | Same quarter last year MAPE | 80% covered | 95% covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 quarter | 4 | 1.04% | 3.85% | 23.90% | 4/4 | 4/4 |
| 2 quarters | 4 | 2.06% | 7.63% | 21.50% | 4/4 | 4/4 |
| 3 quarters | 4 | 10.45% | 17.08% | 23.35% | 4/4 | 4/4 |
| 4 quarters | 4 | 22.49% | 25.03% | 25.03% | 3/4 | 4/4 |
All point-forecast errors use the same historical cases. A simple baseline may have lower error than the Bayesian median; this rollout does not establish that the Bayesian model is superior for every company.
Up to four historical cutoffs spaced four quarters apart, with at least 16 training quarters; full four-quarter outcomes required. Fixed specification, no winner selection.
These are retrospective checks using latest-restated data, not forecasts archived before their outcomes. Results from DDOG or another company are not transferred to this company.
Sampling diagnostics and limitations
Maximum R-hat 1.002 · minimum bulk ESS 5532 · minimum tail ESS 3517 · divergent transitions 0. The required sampling checks passed. These diagnose computation, not predictive calibration.
Fixed priors
mu is long-run quarterly log growth; phi is growth persistence; sigma is the shock scale; season gives quarterly effects; shock_df controls tail thickness.
| Parameter | Prior / fixed assumption |
|---|---|
| mu | Normal(0,0.10) |
| phi | Normal(0,0.5) truncated to [-0.98,0.98] |
| sigma | HalfNormal(0.10) |
| season | 4 Normal(0,0.15), centered to sum zero |
| shock_df | 5 |
Future regime changes and uncertainty over alternative model structures remain outside these intervals. The model should be scored on subsequent releases, and its forecast vintage preserved.
- Revenue-history baseline; does not identify customer-level discounts, acquisitions or future structural breaks.
- Intervals are pointwise, conditional on this model and priors, not guaranteed coverage or simultaneous path bounds.
- Latest-restated historical data; retrospective tests are not archived real-time forecasts. Small test samples cannot validate nominal coverage.
- Student-t log shocks can make dollar means undefined; point forecasts are medians.
- Input source dates are shown separately from generation date; this rollout is not a fresh SEC download.
The report below retains its original forecasts, validation and company-specific discussion. Those revenue estimates use a different model or information cutoff; they are separate from the Bayesian outlook above. Any EPS model below has not been recalculated using the new Bayesian revenue paths.
Welltower Inc. WELL
Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31
Earlier summary (2026-10-14): Welltower Inc. has SEC quarterly revenue data through 2026-03-31. The updated spending model did not pass estimation or forecast-quality checks. Current reported revenue is shown while the forecast is withheld.
Quarterly Revenue History
| Quarter Ending | Revenue |
|---|---|
| 2009-06-30 | $0.1B |
| 2009-09-30 | $0.1B |
| 2009-12-31 | $0.1B |
| 2010-03-31 | $0.1B |
| 2010-06-30 | $0.2B |
| 2010-09-30 | $0.2B |
| 2010-12-31 | $0.1B |
| 2011-03-31 | $0.2B |
| 2011-06-30 | $0.4B |
| 2011-09-30 | $0.4B |
| 2011-12-31 | $0.3B |
| 2012-03-31 | $0.4B |
| 2012-06-30 | $0.4B |
| 2012-09-30 | $0.5B |
| 2012-12-31 | $0.5B |
| 2013-03-31 | $0.6B |
| 2013-06-30 | $0.7B |
| 2013-09-30 | $0.8B |
| 2013-12-31 | $0.8B |
| 2014-03-31 | $0.8B |
| 2014-06-30 | $0.8B |
| 2014-09-30 | $0.8B |
| 2014-12-31 | $0.9B |
| 2015-03-31 | $0.9B |
| 2015-06-30 | $1.0B |
| 2015-09-30 | $1.0B |
| 2015-12-31 | $1.0B |
| 2016-03-31 | $1.0B |
| 2016-06-30 | $1.1B |
| 2016-09-30 | $1.1B |
| 2016-12-31 | $1.1B |
| 2017-03-31 | $1.1B |
| 2017-06-30 | $1.1B |
| 2017-09-30 | $1.1B |
| 2017-12-31 | $1.1B |
| 2018-03-31 | $1.1B |
| 2018-06-30 | $1.1B |
| 2018-09-30 | $1.2B |
| 2018-12-31 | $1.2B |
| 2019-03-31 | $1.3B |
| 2019-06-30 | $1.3B |
| 2019-09-30 | $1.3B |
| 2019-12-31 | $1.3B |
| 2020-03-31 | $1.3B |
| 2020-06-30 | $1.2B |
| 2020-09-30 | $1.0B |
| 2020-12-31 | $1.1B |
| 2021-03-31 | $1.1B |
| 2021-06-30 | $1.1B |
| 2021-09-30 | $1.2B |
| 2021-12-31 | $1.3B |
| 2022-03-31 | $1.4B |
| 2022-06-30 | $1.5B |
| 2022-09-30 | $1.5B |
| 2022-12-31 | $1.5B |
| 2023-03-31 | $1.1B |
| 2023-06-30 | $1.2B |
| 2023-09-30 | $1.2B |
| 2023-12-31 | $1.3B |
| 2024-03-31 | $1.4B |
| 2024-06-30 | $1.4B |
| 2024-09-30 | $1.5B |
| 2024-12-31 | $1.8B |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.9B |
| 2025-06-30 | $2.0B |
| 2025-09-30 | $2.1B |
| 2025-12-31 | $2.6B |
| 2026-03-31 | $2.8B |
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