Sba Communications Corporation SBAC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Sba Communications Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $51M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $610M across the next four quarters (-31.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 22.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$609.7M
-31.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.70x
Training Fit
46.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $39.8M vs the actual $51.4M — an error of 22.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Sba Communications Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($51M) came in 22% above the spending-based forecast ($40M). This suggests that Sba Communications Corporation's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

SBAC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $39.8M $51.4M $15.0M–$105.7M -40.7% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $469.2M $118.0M–$1.87B -35.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $66.8M $12.3M–$362.1M +25.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $47.8M $6.8M–$336.5M +1.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $26.0M $2.9M–$230.2M -49.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Sba Communications Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.1281 +12.8% +12.8% above trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0265 +2.6% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0349 +3.5% +3.5% above trend 16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0833 +8.3% +8.3% above trend 16

Spending and Revenue

SBAC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.2061x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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