Linde Plc LIN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 32 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Linde Plc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $35B, a +3.6% year-over-year change, based on 32 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.89x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.9% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Linde Plc's revenue with exceptional precision (1.9% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.90x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.89x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$35.2B
+3.6% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.90x
SG&A Elasticity
0.89x
Model Accuracy
1.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $8.6B vs the actual $8.8B — an error of 1.6%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

LIN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $8.6B $8.8B $8.2B – $9.1B +4.1% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $8.7B $8.0B – $9.4B +7.1%
Q3 2026 $8.8B $8.0B – $9.6B +3.2%
Q4 2026 $8.8B $7.9B – $9.9B +2.6%
Q1 2027 $8.9B $7.9B – $10B +1.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Linde Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9926 -0.7% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9961 -0.4% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9954 -0.5% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0152 +1.5% In line with trend 8

How Spending Drives Revenue

LIN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 32 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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