Metlife, Inc. MET
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Metlife, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $74B, a -4.4% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($6.21 per $1). The ARDL model has 7.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.6% MAPE), suggesting Metlife, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $6.21 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$73.7B
-4.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$6.21 per $1
Model Accuracy
7.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $18B vs the actual $24B — an error of 24.7%.
Note:
Metlife, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($24B) came in 25% above the spending-based forecast ($18B). This suggests that Metlife, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $18B | $24B | $14B – $21B | -3.9% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $18B | $13B – $23B | -1.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $18B | $12B – $24B | +4.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $19B | $12B – $26B | +8.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $18B | $11B – $26B | -22.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Metlife, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9995 | -0.1% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0436 | +4.4% | +4.4% above trend | 8 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9517 | -4.8% | -4.8% below trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9864 | -1.4% | In line with trend | 8 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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