Sba Communications Corporation SBAC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

With the latest quarterly revenue of 720 million, the model shows SG&A spending has a modest elasticity on revenue: a 1% increase in SG&A is associated with about a 0.07% rise in revenue, implying limited SG&A ROI under this framework. The analysis uses a log-log specification and achieves a holdout MAPE of 2.1%, with the most recent quarter’s forecast of 737 million vs. actual 720 million, an approximate -2.5% error, indicating solid short-term predictive accuracy. For the full year, the forecast calls for 2,996 million in revenue, up 6.4% year over year, signaling modest but positive growth. Given the small revenue response to SG&A, investors may want to focus on efficiency gains or pursue other drivers of revenue beyond SG&A to improve ROI and sustain the outlook.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Sba Communications Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (2.1% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.07x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$3.00B
+6.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.07x
Model Accuracy
2.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $737B vs the actual $720B — an error of 2.5%.
Note: Sba Communications Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

SBAC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $737B $720B $689B – $789B +6.3% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $742B $674B – $817B +11.7%
Q3 2026 $747B $664B – $840B +6.9%
Q4 2026 $751B $656B – $860B +2.6%
Q1 2027 $756B $650B – $880B +5.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Sba Communications Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9965 -0.4% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9953 -0.5% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9954 -0.5% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9936 -0.6% In line with trend 16

How Spending Drives Revenue

SBAC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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