American Tower Corp /Ma/ AMT
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
American Tower Corp /Ma/ has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a +1.7% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.16x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.4% MAPE), suggesting American Tower Corp /Ma/'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.16x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$10.8B
+1.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.16x
Model Accuracy
4.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.7B vs the actual $2.7B — an error of 2.0%.
Note:
American Tower Corp /Ma/ does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | $2.7B | $2.4B – $3.0B | +5.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7B | $2.3B – $3.2B | +4.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | $2.2B – $3.3B | +2.6% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.7B | $2.2B – $3.4B | -0.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $2.7B | $2.1B – $3.5B | -0.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture American Tower Corp /Ma/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9903 | -1.0% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9979 | -0.2% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9854 | -1.5% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0371 | +3.7% | +3.7% above trend | 17 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch