Crown Castle Inc CCI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Crown Castle Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $6.5B, a +52.4% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($7.64 per $1). The ARDL model has 5.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.1% MAPE), suggesting Crown Castle Inc's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $7.64 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$6.50B
+52.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$7.64 per $1
Model Accuracy
5.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.4B vs the actual $1.1B — an error of 28.2%.
Note:
Crown Castle Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($1.1B) came in 28% below the spending-based forecast ($1.4B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | $1.1B | $1.2B – $1.5B | +22.7% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | $1.3B – $1.6B | +38.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | $1.4B – $1.8B | +50.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.7B | $1.4B – $1.9B | +56.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.8B | $1.5B – $2.0B | +65.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Crown Castle Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0168 | +1.7% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9935 | -0.6% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9707 | -2.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0024 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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