D.r. Horton, Inc. DHI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 28 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
D.r. Horton, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $36B, a +13.3% year-over-year change, based on 28 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.16x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks D.r. Horton, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.8% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.16x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$35.6B
+13.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.16x
Model Accuracy
2.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $8.4B vs the actual $6.9B — an error of 21.7%.
Note:
D.r. Horton, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($6.9B) came in 22% below the spending-based forecast ($8.4B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $8.4B | $6.9B | $7.8B – $9.0B | -15.9% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q4 2025 | $8.5B | $7.7B – $9.4B | +11.4% | ||
| Q1 2026 | $9.1B | $8.1B – $10B | +18.3% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $9.0B | $7.8B – $10B | -2.5% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $9.0B | $7.7B – $11B | +30.7% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture D.r. Horton, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0084 | +0.8% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9983 | -0.2% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0001 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 8 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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