D.r. Horton, Inc. DHI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 28 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

D.R. Horton, Inc. demonstrates a strong relationship between its selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and revenue growth, with a 1% increase in SG&A leading to a 0.93% rise in revenue, indicating effective spending strategies. Despite a recent holdout test revealing a significant prediction error, the company is forecasting a robust $36 billion in revenue for the fiscal year, reflecting a 13.3% year-over-year growth. Investors should note the company's ability to leverage its expenditures for revenue generation, although caution is warranted given the model's accuracy challenges. Overall, the outlook remains positive, driven by strategic investments in SG&A that support continued revenue expansion.

Next FY Revenue
$35.63B
+13.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.93x
Model Accuracy
2.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $8B vs the actual $7B — an error of 21.7%.
Note: D.r. Horton, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($7B) came in 22% below the spending-based forecast ($8B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

DHI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 2025 $8B $7B $8B – $9B -15.9% ✗ Outside range
Q4 2025 $8B $8B – $9B +11.4%
Q1 2026 $9B $8B – $10B +18.3%
Q2 2026 $9B $8B – $10B -2.5%
Q3 2026 $9B $8B – $11B +30.7%

How Spending Drives Revenue

DHI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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