Home Depot, Inc. HD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-02

Home Depot, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $47.9B for the period ending 2026-08-02. The model projects $173B across the next four quarters (+2.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-02. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$172.6B
+2.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.58x
Training Fit
2.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $45.93B vs the actual $47.86B — an error of 4.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Home Depot, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

HD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-02		 $45.93B $47.86B $42.76B–$49.35B +1.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-02		 $42.70B $38.59B–$47.26B +3.3%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-02		 $39.95B $35.28B–$45.23B +4.6%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-05-02		 $43.29B $37.51B–$49.97B +3.7%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-02		 $46.69B $39.78B–$54.81B -2.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Home Depot, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.9906 -0.9% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0149 +1.5% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 0.9881 -1.2% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 1.007 +0.7% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

HD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7191x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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