Lululemon Athletica Inc. LULU

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-02

Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.4B for the period ending 2026-08-02. The model projects $11.9B across the next four quarters (+7.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-02. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$11.9B
+7.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$3.44 per $1
Training Fit
3.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $2.58B vs the actual $2.42B — an error of 7.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Lululemon Athletica Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

LULU Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-02		 $2.58B $2.42B $2.49B–$2.68B +2.3% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-02		 $2.78B $2.64B–$2.91B +8.2%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-02		 $3.93B $3.77B–$4.10B +8.1%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-05-02		 $2.58B $2.38B–$2.77B +4.2%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-02		 $2.63B $2.42B–$2.85B +9.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 1.0002 +0.0% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (May–Jul) 0.9957 -0.4% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 0.992 -0.8% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 1.0065 +0.6% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

LULU Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 2.1803x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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