Ralph Lauren Corporation RL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Ralph Lauren Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $2.0B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $9.0B across the next four quarters (+7.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$9.00B
+7.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.22 per $1
Training Fit
4.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $1.82B vs the actual $1.96B — an error of 7.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Ralph Lauren Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

RL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-06-27		 $1.82B $1.96B $1.65B–$1.99B +5.9% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-27		 $2.26B $2.02B–$2.51B +12.4%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-27		 $2.58B $2.28B–$2.88B +7.1%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-27		 $2.23B $1.88B–$2.57B +12.6%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-06-27		 $1.94B $1.55B–$2.32B -1.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ralph Lauren Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Apr–Jun) 1.0206 +2.1% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Jul–Sep) 1.0049 +0.5% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Oct–Dec) 1.0118 +1.2% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Jan–Mar) 0.992 -0.8% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

RL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 64 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.6972x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 64 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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